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Carter won't feature in either of the opening two Bledisloe matches. Source:AAP
THE All Blacks arrive in Sydney on Thursday night for another Bledisloe Cup campaign and the fact Dan Carter is at home injured majorly improves the Wallabies' chances of victory, right? Surely?
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Sorry, but wrong.
Brace yourself long-suffering Wallaby fans, but statistics suggest the All Blacks are harder to beat in trans-Tasman clashes without Carter than when the Kiwi superstar plays against Australia.
Of the six clashes against Australia that Carter has missed since his debut in 2003, the Kiwis have only lost one: the Rugby World Cup semi-final later that year.
The no-Carter winning percentage is 83%, but overall, when the brilliant All Blacks star is playing, the percentage drops to 75%.
Of his 24 Bledisloe Cup clashes with the Wallabies, Carter has won 18, lost five and drawn one.
The figures aren't hugely complimentary for the Wallabies on other score but the evidence of New Zealand's ability to cope without their star playmaker is still not the encouraging material Australian rugby would have hoped for this week.
Carter was ruled out for a month with a calf injury on Tuesday, meaning he'll miss the opening Bledisloe Cup clash on Saturday night and the return clash in Wellington next weekend.
Given Carter's knack for driving a stake through Wallaby hearts over the last decade, it's only logical to assume his absence would have been quietly welcomed by Ewen McKenzie and his players.
But as with the 2011 Rugby World Cup, when Carter was lost before the finals after tearing a groin, the All Blacks camp has remained confident they have sufficient depth.
The Wallabies were unable to beat the Carter-less Kiwis in the semi-final of that tournament and the ability of his replacement, Aaron Cruden, has skyrocketed in the two years since.
Cruden led the Chiefs to back-to-back Super Rugby titles just two weeks ago, and has been in superb form in the back half of 2013.
So impressive has he been, in fact, the first seeds of an unthinkable debate began in New Zealand: has Cruden passed Carter?
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The Wallabies said Cruden was enviable cover and All Blacks coach Steve Hansen said with usual bluster that Carter's injury was "no big deal to me".
"We are really fortunate that we have more than one world-class five-eighth," Hansen said.
"Aaron has been on top of his game all season and has just going through two major (Super Rugby) matches with a lot of intensity and pressure.
"He's ready to rumble and he's also played a couple of Tests this year so he understands what we're trying to do. He's part of the leadership group so it's business as usual."
So does this all point to the Bledisloe Cup drought stretching to an 11th year? Not necessarily.
Statistics also show Carter is not a man you simply replace, particularly against Australia.
His prolific pointscoring – mostly through deadly accurate goalkicking – has repeatedly sunk the Wallabies, including at Homebush. In 2009 he kicked a 77th minute penalty for a 19-18 victory.
Of 18 wins over Australia, Carter's boot accounted for the All Blacks' winning margin 10 times, and either equalled or beat the Wallabies' entire points tally on his own nine times. He has averaged 13.4 points per game against Australia.
Despite losing only once without him, the All Blacks' average winning margin over the Wallabies dropped from 14 with Carter to just seven points without him.
This could suggest that despite Cruden's competence, the All Blacks are not as efficient in scoring points with Carter. If there is one worry in New Zealand about Cruden, it's his goalkicking.
It can be fairly described as ordinary so far in 2013, with an average success rate of just 69.4% in Super Rugby a long way off Carter's 86.4%, and behind the 78.5% of Wallabies kicker Christian Lealiifano too.
Cruden has generally got the job done with the boot when needed, including in the final, but his tendency to have off-nights would be a "big deal" to Hansen.
In nine games with kicking duties for the Chiefs this year, Cruden kicked less than 60% of his goals. In the round 20 showdown with the Blues, Cruden couldn't hit a barndoor with a cowbell, kicking one from five.
With no other recognised kickers in the All Blacks side, Cruden will have the job on Saturday night.
All Blacks v Wallabies
When Carter is MISSING: W:5, D:0, L:1. %: 83.3. Avg For: 21.7. Avg Aga:17.8
When Carter is PLAYING W: 18, D:1, L:5. %:75. Avg For: 26.4. Avg Aga: 17.
All Blacks Overall
When Carter is MISSING: W: 32, D: 0, L: 6. %: 84.2. Avg For: 35.2. Avg Aga: 14.9.
When Carter is PLAYING: W: 83, D: 1, L: 11. %: 87.4. Avg For: 35.7. Avg Aga: 14.5
Courtesy of Fox Sports Stats
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