Final Four: Path to Glory

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 17 September 2013 | 20.47

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PLAYERS and coaches talk about taking things a week at a time, but fans are always gazing ahead and thinking about the "what ifs".

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MATT WINDLEY takes a look in to the crystal ball to determine just who your team might come up against throughout September -- and who they might want to come up against.

HAWTHORN

Preliminary final v Geelong, MCG, Friday 7.50pm

WIN: Grand Final v winner of Fremantle v Sydney preliminary final.

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We all know the story. Hawthorn has lost an incredible 11 games in a row to Geelong and will have to snap that curse in order to make a second-consecutive Grand Final. Should the Hawks make it to the last Saturday in September then they will face either a rematch of last year's Grand Final or a Fremantle side playing in its first ever premiership decider. Alastair Clarkson's men would, on past history, relish a test against either team. They have won their last four against the Dockers, and seven of their past eight games since 2008. Only one of those games was at the MCG, that was in 2011 when the Hawks came from behind at three-quarter time to run out 22-point winners. As for Sydney, the Hawks have already played and beaten them three times this year -- including two times in the past month -- and would be hell-bent on gaining revenge for last year should they meet again.

LAST FIVE v GEELONG
R15 2013, MCG: Geel 11.16 (82) def Haw 10.12 (72)
R1 2013, MCG: Geel 13.15 (93) def Haw 12.14 (86)
R19 2012, MCG: Geel 18.10 (118) def Haw 17.14 (116)
R2 2012, MCG: Geel 14.8 (92) def Haw 13.12 (90)
QF 2011, MCG: Geel 14.14 (98) def Haw 9.13 (67)

Fremantle midfielder Nathan Fyfe fires out a handpass against Port Adelaide. Source: HeraldSun

FREMANTLE

Preliminary final v Sydney, Patersons Stadium, Saturday 7.45pm

WIN: Grand Final v winner of Hawthorn v Geelong preliminary final.

It's so hard to get a read on any historical guideline to Fremantle's clash with Sydney this Saturday because the two teams have played against each other at Patersons Stadium just twice since 2005. On Anzac Day in 2009 the Dockers won by 21 points, while the Swans reversed the tables the following year, winning by nine. On this year's form however -- and the fact that the Swans will be without the likes of Adam Goodes, Sam Reid, Kurt Tippett and Tom Mitchell -- Ross Lyon's men will like their chances. Should they make the Grand Final for the first time in club history, a clash with Geelong next week would no doubt have long-suffering Dockers fans more confident. The Dockers were so impressive in defeating the Cats at Simonds Stadium in the qualifying final, while they also got the job done against them the MCG in last year's elimination final. To Hawthorn, however, Fremantle has lost four in a row.

LAST FIVE v SYDNEY
R8 2013, SCG: Syd 9.16 (70) drew Frem 11.4 (70)
R2 2012, SCG: Syd 14.10 (94) def Frem 12.9 (81)
R17 2011, SCG: Frem 15.8 (98) def Syd 13.9 (87)
R20 2010, Patersons Stadium: Syd 14.12 (96) def Frem 13.9 (87)
R9 2010, SCG: Frem 14.16 (100) def Syd 9.9 (63)

Tough ... Joel Selwood is up for three awards. Source: Getty Images

GEELONG

Preliminary final v Hawthorn, MCG, Friday 7.50pm

WIN: Grand Final v winner of Fremantle v Sydney preliminary final.

Random stat: In winning its last 11 matches against Hawthorn since losing the 2008 Grand Final, Geelong has recorded the longest streak of wins in VFL/AFL history after a Grand Final loss to the same opponent. The Cats will therefore have every right to feel confident heading in to Friday night's preliminary final at the MCG. They'd be less confident up against Fremantle the following week given that the Dockers seem to have come up with a fail safe game plan to knock them off their perch. Should the Cats win on Friday night then they will be hoping Sydney do likewise against the Dockers the next day. Geelong has won its past three against the Swans, including by 44 points in a comprehensive victory at Simonds Stadium last month.

LAST FIVE v HAWTHORN
R15 2013, MCG: Geel 11.16 (82) def Haw 10.12 (72)
R1 2013, MCG: Geel 13.15 (93) def Haw 12.14 (86)
R19 2012, MCG: Geel 18.10 (118) def Haw 17.14 (116)
R2 2012, MCG: Geel 14.8 (92) def Haw 13.12 (90)
QF 2011, MCG: Geel 14.14 (98) def Haw 9.13 (67)

Kieren Jack celebrates his last-quarter goal during the Grand Final. Picture: Michael Klein Source: Herald Sun

SYDNEY

Preliminary final v Fremantle, Patersons Stadium, Saturday 7.45pm

WIN: Grand Final v winner of Hawthorn v Geelong preliminary final.

While there isn't a lot of recent history between Sydney and Fremantle to draw on, Swans players would have no qualms about playing at Patersons Stadium this week. John Longmire's men have won their past four games at Subiaco, three against West Coast and one against Fremantle, back to 2010 -- they're also six of eight dating back to 2006. If the Swans were to defy the odds and win this week then a Grand Final against Hawthorn is likely the more appealing option. Yes the Swans have lost three games to the Hawks this year, including twice in the past month, but when the going gets tough will Sydney players have the mental edge considering they won the battle of wills in last year's premiership decider? The Swans have lost three in a row to Geelong.

LAST FIVE v FREMANTLE
R8 2013, SCG: Syd 9.16 (70) drew Frem 11.4 (70)
R2 2012, SCG: Syd 14.10 (94) def Frem 12.9 (81)
R17 2011, SCG: Frem 15.8 (98) def Syd 13.9 (87)
R20 2010, Patersons Stadium: Syd 14.12 (96) def Frem 13.9 (87)
R9 2010, SCG: Frem 14.16 (100) def Syd 9.9 (63)


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