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ONLY an unexpected quirk of the voting system or an over-emphasis on one-day cricket can prevent Michael Clarke from winning an unprecedented fifth Allan Border Medal on Monday night.
The Australian captain has been the standout Test batsman in the world during the past year but missed half of Australia's one-day matches because of injury.
A combined voting system that takes in all forms of the game heavily favours all-rounders, which puts Shane Watson in the frame despite his continue struggles for form and consistency.
Watson has already won two AB Medals while Clarke is in line to go past Ricky Ponting, who has four.
Clarke scored 1030 Test runs at 45 with four centuries from the beginning of the voting period on February 1, more runs and more hundreds than any other player in the game.
Australian captain Michael Clarke is a popular public figure these days. Picture: Phil Hillyard. Source: News Limited
Significantly he was at his best when Australia struggled through difficult Test series in India and England, losing seven Tests and drawing two.
Nine Tests in a row without a victory was Australia's worst run in almost 30 years.
Clarke averaged almost 48 in India and England with a century in each series and helped set up Australia's remarkable 5-0 Ashes whitewash this summer with hundreds in the first two Tests before fading.
Watson was Australia's second highest run-scorer over the past year despite averaging just 34 in 13 Tests, highlighting the struggle for runs throughout the team.
He was solid with the bat in one-day cricket, averaging 41 with three hundreds, but his bowling made little impact in Test or limited overs matches.
Clarke's greatest challenger for Test player of the year is Ryan Harris, who claimed 46 wickets in nine Tests at just 19 apiece.
George Bailey is the stand-out favourite for one-day player of the year given his remarkable performances in a building side.
He averaged 80 with two centuries and seven half-centuries.
Who will win the Allan Border Medal?
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