Selectors must face Marsh reality

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TONY Abbott proclaimed his would be a "no surprises" government. There are no such guarantees from the Australian selection panel.

Left-handed batsman Shaun Marsh was the main beneficiary of the selectors' speculation in choosing the Test squad for South Africa, while right-hander George Bailey was the only member of the Ashes whitewash squad who will miss the flight.

Marsh has the sort of talent that makes batting look easy when he's in form and this can be a seductive quality. The selectors have succumbed to his talent knowing full well that Marsh can be frustratingly inconsistent and is a recurring injury worry. This is probably his last chance as a Test batsman.

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By choosing both Marsh and newcomer Alex Doolan, the selectors have allowed for flexibility in the batting order. Shane Watson is another who frustrates when his run output is compared with his prodigious talent. His string of moderate first-innings scores has resulted in a number of options being provided for the crucial No.3 spot. If the captain decides to bat Watson at six and utilise his bowling talents more, then it will be a straight battle between Marsh and Doolan for the first drop position.

Bailey's omission can't be classed as a surprise, as he was extremely fortunate to be in the side in the first place. The batsman who could be considered unlucky is Phil Hughes.

Hughes has had a checkered Test career; he scored two centuries in his first four innings but has been dropped on five occasions. He must rue the day he set foot on Thomas Lord's potato patch; he's played two Tests at the famous London ground - four unsuccessful innings - and each time he's been dropped.

However, Hughes continues to perform in an environment that should please the selectors. He consistently scores first-class hundreds, where others like Marsh haven't, and yet he's been overlooked. His luck may change in five years time, as this panel has a tendency to seek out older batsmen.

They've chosen four - Ed Cowan, Rob Quiney, George Bailey and Chris Rogers - and only the last named has the look of a survivor. This underlines the weakness in choosing older batsmen; once they start failing they're never heard of again.

The frustrating aspect for the selection panel has been the failure of any young batsman, apart from Hughes, to consistently make their mark at Sheffield Shield level.

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Batting is the skill that will either make or break this South African tour. Australia have a more versatile attack, they play more aggressive cricket and have a superior captain. Nevertheless, all these advantages will count for nothing if the batsmen don't provide both the bowlers and captain with enough runs. If the top order collapses continue in South Africa it'll likely end in disaster, as the home side has a more penetrative attack than England.

Australia's attack is well-suited to the local conditions as the pitches tend to suit seam bowlers. Add to this Mitchell Johnson's explosive qualities as well as Nathan Lyon's improved off-spin and Clarke has more choices than the conservative Graeme Smith.

Brad Haddin has been in such good batting form lately that his keeping is often overlooked but he's also performed well with the gloves. The feisty keeper is another advantage Australia hold since he's a superior glove man to the incumbent AB de Villiers, or any other option South Africa might choose.

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With batting being crucial to the result of the series, Australia may opt for Marsh's previous Test experience rather than gambling on debutant Doolan. Clarke may also choose to start the series with Marsh at six, as he's unlikely to be troubled by spin (his weaker department), with South Africa tending to rely heavily on their seamers.

Marsh's selection is a gamble and the punters' adage is you have to speculate to accumulate. If Marsh does amass plenty of runs then the selectors' flutter may result in a surprise Australian series victory.

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