NRL round one just a big mirage

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A WISE sports punter once said nothing was ever as good or bad as it looked in round one of the NRL premiership.

The punter reckoned everyone is so pent up for the season to start that everything in Round 1 is overanalysed.

Every victor seems a potential premier. Every loser is in for a miserable winter. The truth lies somewhere in between and is often the opposite of what we think.

I liked this theory so much that after every Round 1 each year, I do what we might call the contrarian's index where we try and see good in the bad and bad in the good in the hope of gettingto get a more measured feel about what lies ahead.

So here's the upside down view of key parts of Round 1.

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SOUTHS

Yes, yes … we all know the story. No premiership since 1971 but this is the year because they are bigger, stronger, fitter, faster and more experienced.

Maybe, but I am actually tipping them to be beaten by Manly next weekend.

Souths may have stampeded the Roosters on Thursday but they can earn nothing of substance until grand final day because anything less than a premiership is beneath a pass mark which is brutal pressure for any side. They will spend the next seven months as taut as if they are wearing a dinner suit with a tight top button.

Former Souths coach John Lang once said that, even in battling times, Souths only had to win a match or two to double the amount of onlookers at training and create a tsunami of interest. With extra interest comes pressure and the pressureheat on the Bunnies is enormous already high.

ROOSTERS

Their 28-8 loss to the Rabbitohs was enough to start a string of discussions about how tough is it to win back-to-back premierships and how the force of gravity gets you in the end.

Don't be fooled.

They'll have their little let-down and just float nicely in the top four and then, come September, watch them ­explode from the shadows.

BRONCOS

They did exceptionally well to throttle the Bulldogs and there were noticeable positives at both ends of the field.

But greater tests await them.

There was an element of mystery about the new-model Broncos and how they would play and their new patterns, particularly those relating to Ben Barba, will be studied closely by rival teams. It is significant that since landing in Brisbane, Barba has bought a house and got a driver's licence – signs he is settling down, but he will be a marked man throughout the this season.

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STORM

The Melbourne Storm have reinvented themselves more times than Madonna and just keep performing.

To come from 20-0 down away from home against Manly was stunning – but the Storm traditionally start the season as if they were shot out of a cannon as they must do with a team structured around three main players.

Their big question is whether their magnificent Holy Trinity of Slater, Smith and Cronk can stay fit and firing until September. We still think the $7 about a Storm premiership may be too short.

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COWBOYS

Had a mixed night against the Raiders but the club's new coaching staff must be asking themselves whether they really want to win a premiership and be photographed in their new checkered club shirts.

They may have been purchased when the club first opened its doors in 1995 and someone has just found them in a bottom drawer.

RAIDERS

Most teams would be heartbroken to give up a 16-0 lead as they did against the Cowboys but something is brewing here.

They are still very much the unfinished product but the night showed the best of the Raiders is great to watch and the best of Anthony Milford gobsmacking. Broncos fans are drooling at the prospect of he and Barba uniting next season for the club will instantly become premiership chances.

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PANTHERS

They were many people's sneaky tip to make the finals and those people are feeling very comfortable with their tip after they flogged Newcastle.

But we need to see more. Penrith in Penrith normally find a pulse. Newcastle had more injuries than a Combat moviehospital ward.

The Panthers may have just had a hot day.

That's the joy of round one. It creates more questions as it answers.

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