Damian Browne is not overjoyed by Buffering's draw for the T.J. Smith Stakes. Source: Peter Wallis / News Corp Australia
A CLOSE examination of statistics from inside barriers at Randwick underline why jockey Damian Browne cringed when learning of Buffering's draw for Saturday's $2.5 million T.J. Smith Stakes.
Ordinarily, barrier two would be welcomed by connections in a feature race. But both Browne and Lankan Rupee's trainer Mick Price, have expressed concerns after they drew 1-2.
Statistician and professional punter Daniel O'Sullivan, from Smartform Racing, said the pair now faced a very difficult task, particularly given the likelihood of wet ground.
"In general, drawing inside barriers in massive fields is a losing proposition,'' O'Sullivan said.
"But at Randwick, the figures are even worse.''
O'Sullivan said since 2008, backing fancied horses from barriers one and two at Randwick (up to $10 in the market) had produced a 32 per cent loss on turnover.
"It's even worse over the 1000m and 1200m there, with a 42 per cent loss and strike rate of just 9 per cent.
"The remarkable thing is that you could have made a 6 per cent profit backing every other runner (at $10 or under) in that time.''
O'Sullivan said the inside has been "off'' at Randwick on wet tracks since it was refurbished.
"I'm surprised Buffering is second favourite,'' O'Sullivan said bluntly.
"I just can't imagine a scenario where he gets to the right position in running. The same applies to Lankan Rupee, who has a similar in-run profile.''
O'Sullivan said Buffering will have to be hunted early and is unlikely to get any chance of a breather in the run, a fear shared by Browne.
"I was keen for him to draw double figures or worse,'' Browne said.
"On what he had done in the past couple of weeks, I felt he was going to be a real top chance, but he's going to need a bit of luck now.''
Trainer Rob Heathcote is happy with the progress Buffering has made since running seventh in the Challenge Stakes first up, but he is concerned the inside section might be the worst place to be.
The market is likely to react and already Buffering is easing as rain closed over Randwick yesterday.
Lankan Rupee has also moved to a more juicy price, as money rolls in for Gordon Lord Byron.
The import loves wet ground and the muddier Randwick becomes, the more suited he will be, as he's sure to be strong at the business end in a real slog.
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